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June 17, 2010

Stratfor: China May Support DPRK in Event of Hostilities

 

 

Stratfor reports today that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il requested advanced Chinese fighter jets and other weapons systems, but was rebuffed; however, Stratfor believes it is highly likely that Hu Jintao offered, possibly in their place, Chinese support if North Korea came under attack:

 

North Korea asked China to provide it with the latest J-10 fighter jets and other hardware but was rejected, Chosun reported June 17. According to a high-ranking North Korean source, leader Kim Jong Il made the request to Chinese President Hu Jintao when he visited China in early May. But Hu apparently told Kim that China would protect and support him if attacked.

 

If true, such news will come as no surprise to Western analysts and military experts, most of whom have been unimpressed by China’s shell game on the Korean Peninsula. China in the past has been accused of aiding the DPRK’s nuclear weapons program. Some attention has also particularly been paid to an alleged Chinese nuclear plant that sits just feet from North Korea’s border, on the other side of which at about a mile distance sits a rail station. (You can locate it on Yahoo or Google Maps by entering these coordinates: 42°53'34.07"N, 130°17'20.35"E or click the annotated image below to enlarge. Nuclear site location on Google Earth map image courtesy North Korea Economy Watch).  North Korea has, in turn, dutifully passed along its nuclear help to regimes such as Pakistan. Both China and North Korea are the key reason Pakistan now has nuclear weapons.

 

 

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Meanwhile, Jane’s Defence Weekly says that China has proposed a “military technology forum” with Indonesia. The article goes on to point out that Indonesia is increasingly important to the region strategically to both China and the United States, as both navies would like to secure navigational control through its straights and both countries would like to have access to oil and other resources there, as well. Jamestown reported last year, however, that such arrangements have, at least until that time, remained rocky between China and Indonesia. Nevertheless, as we have seen in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia, a weaker US tends to result in cozier relations between China and neighbors eager to keep peace.

 

It is unfortunate that even as China continues to stand by its close ally, the US seems uninterested in doing the same for its ally Israel (and perhaps others) if attacked. It should be also noted that Iran, which is seeking to destroy Israel is also heavily supported economically and militarily by China as well as Russia. It should serve as a wake-up call for sleeping democracies around the world of the need for solidarity, particularly as this new Axis crisis unfolds – and as the West continues to project division and weakness, that unfolding most assuredly will.

 

 

Martin recently completed an internship with the London-based Henry Jackson Society and is presently working on his Master's in National Security Studies. He holds a BA in International Relations. Prior to his time in London, he spent several months in Washington, D.C., where he attended several events, toured the White House, Capitol, and Pentagon. He is a member of Young Professionals in Foreign Policy, the World Affairs Council, and United Nations Association.

Posted by Martin at June 17, 2010 01:50 AM

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